Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

Current odds

• June 30, 2027 — 7.5%
• December 31 — 1.3%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

About this market: This market asks whether Ukraine will capture any territory in Crimea by each listed deadline, with every date resolving as its own question. Resolution follows the ISW Ukraine map: any part of the peninsula shaded under the claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives layer qualifies, as does actual control gained through a negotiated settlement, while strikes, blockades and announcements on paper do not. Prices depend on whether Ukraine's campaign to isolate Crimea turns into ground or amphibious operations, on Russia's fortifications at the narrow land approaches, and on the progress of ceasefire talks that could freeze the front lines; read the full analysis