Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Current odds

• December 31 — 3.1%
• August 31 — 0.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: This market tracks whether the United States will formally withdraw from the NATO alliance before the end of 2026. Congressional legislation from 2023 requires Senate approval for any presidential withdrawal, creating substantial institutional barriers despite periodic escalations in rhetoric. The April spike following European refusal to join Iran operations showed how quickly prices can move on headlines before reverting when legal realities reassert themselves, with the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara representing the next major catalyst. For a detailed breakdown of the leverage trading opportunities, read the full analysis.