World Cup: Golden Boot Winner

Current odds

• Lionel Messi — 58.1%
• Kylian Mbappe — 42.0%
• Harry Kane — 0.8%
• Jude Bellingham — 0.3%
• Mikel Oyarzabal — 0.2%
• Lamine Yamal — 0.1%
• Ferran Torres — 0.1%
• Dani Olmo — 0.1%
• Marcus Thuram — 0.1%
• Desire Doue — 0.1%
• Ousmane Dembele — 0.1%
• Bradley Barcola — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: The 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Boot market tracks which player will finish as the tournament's top scorer, with Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe locked in a historic duel at six goals apiece. Polymarket prices reflect both current standings and expected paths through the knockout rounds, making direction of travel as important as the raw goal count. Harry Kane and Erling Haaland remain live long shots whose chances depend heavily on their nations advancing past difficult Round of 16 opponents. For complete analysis of the odds, recent scoring form, and upcoming catalysts, read the full analysis