World Cup Winner

Current odds

• France — 23.0%
• Argentina — 20.9%
• Spain — 10.6%
• England — 10.3%
• Portugal — 5.9%
• Brazil — 5.8%
• Netherlands — 5.2%
• Germany — 3.8%
• Colombia — 2.7%
• USA — 2.2%
• Norway — 2.1%
• Morocco — 1.4%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: The 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market on Polymarket offers exposure to 48 nations competing for football's most prestigious trophy. France and Argentina have emerged as clear favorites after dominant group stage performances, with Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi each staking claims for the Golden Boot. The fixed bracket structure creates identifiable collision points between contenders, while the expanded knockout format beginning with a Round of 32 means more matches - and more volatility - before the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium. read the full analysis