Geopolitics Prediction Markets
Geopolitics on prediction markets — conflicts, ceasefires, sanctions, nuclear milestones, and world-leader transitions. Event-driven markets that reprice fast on the news; trade them with leverage up to 5x.
New to leveraging Geopolitics markets? Start with Leverage Trading on Polymarket: The Complete Guide.
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price United Russia at 96.5% to win the most seats in Russia's September 2026 parliamentary election. This catalyst-timeline analysis maps the repricing windows for leveraged traders.
GeopoliticsWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by December 31, 2026 at just 6.5%. This catalyst-timeline analysis breaks down the key windows and events that could reprice this market.
GeopoliticsWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price China invading Taiwan by September 30, 2026 at just 1.7%. This catalyst-timeline analysis maps the military exercises, diplomatic flashpoints, and arms deliveries that could reprice the market through expiration.
GeopoliticsWill the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price a US invasion of Greenland in 2026 at just 3.4%, but with over $1.4 million in volume. What does this low-probability, high-attention contract reveal about tail-risk pricing?
GeopoliticsWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price the Iranian regime falling by September 30 at just 3.5%. This catalyst-timeline analysis maps every scheduled event that could reprice the market and identifies optimal windows for leveraged positions.
GeopoliticsNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price a NATO-Russia direct military clash at 24.5% before year-end. This catalyst-timeline analysis maps the scheduled events that will force repricing through December 2026.
GeopoliticsIran charges Hormuz fees by... Odds & Analysis
The outcome ladder on Iran charging Hormuz passage fees reveals a striking probability concentration in August. Understanding where volume clusters and what the spreads imply guides leveraged positioning across the four contracts.
GeopoliticsUS announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by... Odds & Analysis
The 14.8 percentage point gap between July 31 and August 31 withdrawal odds reveals precisely where traders expect movement. This catalyst timeline maps every repricing window.
GeopoliticsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Kostyantynivka capture at 0.5% by July 31, 12.0% by September 30, and 44.5% by December 31, 2026. Analysis of the catalyst calendar and trading windows for each deadline.
GeopoliticsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended Odds & Analysis
With extension odds at 44.5%, contrarian traders eye the convexity advantage of minority geopolitical positions. Analysis of what scenarios would force a reprice and how leverage amplifies asymmetric returns.
GeopoliticsWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Ukraine formally agreeing to cede territory to Russia before 2027 at 11.5%. This catalyst-timeline analysis maps every scheduled event that could reprice the market.
GeopoliticsUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026 Odds & Analysis
With prediction markets assigning 4.6% odds to US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, base-rate analysis examines how often America has formally recognized opposition figures historically.
GeopoliticsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by... Odds & Analysis
At 21% Yes, the Iranian blockade market sits in a distinctive probability zone. This market-structure analysis examines what the pricing reveals about trader beliefs and how to position with leverage.
GeopoliticsErdoğan out by December 31, 2026 Odds & Analysis
The Erdogan exit market prices just 5.5% probability of departure before 2027. Here's what this extreme pricing reveals about political stability bets and how leverage amplifies returns on low-probability outcomes.
GeopoliticsWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027 Odds & Analysis
With 92.5% probability priced in, this geopolitical contract reveals how market structure concentrates uncertainty in the No side and what that asymmetry means for leveraged traders.
GeopoliticsMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Díaz-Canel exit at 29.5%, but Cuba has had only three leaders since 1959 with zero involuntary removals. Base rate analysis suggests this probability may be elevated.
GeopoliticsIran invades Kuwait by... Odds & Analysis
Markets price an Iranian invasion of Kuwait at just 3.4% through August 2026. Explore what the outcome ladder reveals about tail-risk pricing and where the real information sits.
GeopoliticsRussia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Odds & Analysis
The Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay sits at 12.5% on prediction markets. We examine the strongest bull and bear cases for mispricing, then deliver a judgment on which side has the better evidence.
GeopoliticsIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026 Odds & Analysis
The Israel-Indonesia normalization market prices at 8.5% with over half a million in volume. Understand what this market structure reveals about diplomatic probability and how to trade it.
GeopoliticsUS military draft authorized in 2026 Odds & Analysis
With prediction markets pricing US military draft authorization at just 4.2%, we analyze the structural dynamics of tail-risk contracts, asymmetric payoffs, and how leverage amplifies both opportunity and liquidation risk.
GeopoliticsUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by... Odds & Analysis
Three staggered deadlines create distinct trading windows for US-Iran ceasefire markets. Analyze the catalyst calendar, time decay dynamics, and 5x leverage math across July 31, August 15, and August 31 contracts.
GeopoliticsUS charges Hormuz fees by... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price US Strait of Hormuz transit fees at 8.5% by December 2026. A catalyst-timeline breakdown of the policy windows, procedural requirements, and leverage entry points for traders.
GeopoliticsIsraeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by… Odds & Analysis
Deep dive into the Litani River withdrawal market structure: why the 32-point spread between July and December outcomes reveals where real price discovery happens and how to trade it.
GeopoliticsWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price North Korea invasion at 3.3% before 2027. Deep analysis of how the outcome ladder is priced, where liquidity concentrates, and what the spread reveals about geopolitical risk.
GeopoliticsWill Russia capture Lyman by... Odds & Analysis
Base-rate analysis of Russian city captures in Ukraine reveals whether the 50% odds for Lyman by December 2026 align with historical patterns. Examining reference classes and capture timelines.
GeopoliticsWill Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets assign just 6% odds to Russia capturing Sumy by March 2027. We examine the bull and bear cases for mispricing and what leveraged traders should consider.
GeopoliticsWill Venezuela become 51st state Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Venezuela becoming the 51st US state at just 2.6%. This market-structure analysis examines why this floor pricing exists and what it reveals about trading extreme-probability contracts.
GeopoliticsIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Israel-Saudi normalization before 2027 at 14.5%. This catalyst-timeline analysis maps the diplomatic windows that will reprice this market and leverage strategies for each.
GeopoliticsWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets assign 4.2% odds to any NATO member departing by year-end 2026. With Article 13 requiring one-year notice, what catalysts could move this market?
GeopoliticsWill Russia invade another country in 2026 Odds & Analysis
Markets price Russia invasion of another country in 2026 at just 9%. This market-structure analysis breaks down what the 91/9 spread reveals and how leverage amplifies both sides of this geopolitical binary.
GeopoliticsUAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026 Odds & Analysis
A 5.2% contract on UAE-Qatar diplomatic rupture reveals how prediction markets price tail-risk geopolitical events and what traders can extract from asymmetric payoff structures.
GeopoliticsHow many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets assign 34.9% probability to the US conducting military action in exactly 9 countries during 2026. Base-rate analysis reveals whether this pricing aligns with historical patterns.
PoliticsVenezuela de facto leader end of 2026 Odds & Analysis
The dated calendar that will reprice Venezuela leadership odds: Q3 positioning windows, Q4 decisive catalysts, and how to structure 5x leveraged trades around scheduled events.
GeopoliticsIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price an Israel-Turkey military clash at 12.5% before 2027. We analyze the strongest bull and bear cases to determine whether this probability represents fair value or tradeable mispricing.
GeopoliticsWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Iran NPT withdrawal at 20.4% before 2027. Explore what this tail-risk probability implies for market structure, leverage strategies, and position sizing.
GeopoliticsWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets give just 7.5% odds to the US acquiring any part of Greenland in 2026. Despite Trump's persistent pressure and the July NATO summit tensions, Denmark and Greenland remain firmly opposed. With over $10.4 million in volume, traders are betting heavily against territorial transfer this year.
GeopoliticsIran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Iran formally withdrawing from MOU negotiations at 16.5% by July 31, 10.5% by August 7, and 4.5% by August 15, with $3.66 million in volume.
GeopoliticsWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets currently price a U.S. military invasion of Cuba before year-end at 12.5%, with $3.18 million in volume. Analysis of escalation catalysts, Pentagon contingency planning, and leverage trading opportunities on both sides of this geopolitical question.
GeopoliticsIran full airspace closure by... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Iran full airspace closure at 38.5% by July 31, rising to 50% by August 31. With EASA advisories already in place and US strikes expanding, the gap between partial and full closure may be narrower than odds suggest.
GeopoliticsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Israel-Iran ceasefire survival at 96.6% through July 22, but confidence drops sharply to 38.5% by August 31. The steep term structure reflects the 10-day truce proposal and the approaching 60-day MOU deadline.
GeopoliticsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) Odds & Analysis
Markets price an effective US-Iran ceasefire by August 31 at 48.5%, reflecting deep uncertainty as active warfare coexists with ongoing diplomacy. The August 14 tranche trades at 35.5%, July 31 at 17.5%, and July 24 at just 4.5%.
PoliticsSweden Parliamentary Election Winner Odds & Analysis
With the Social Democrats priced at 96.5% and the Sweden Democrats at just 2.6%, Sweden's September 2026 election offers a study in efficient pricing and the mathematics of trading near-certainties with leverage.
GeopoliticsIran Nuke before 2027 Odds & Analysis
With over $1.19 million in volume, prediction markets assign just 5.7% odds to Iran crossing the nuclear threshold by December 31, 2026. The ongoing conflict and underground reconstruction create asymmetric opportunities for leverage traders.
GeopoliticsChina x Japan military clash before 2027 Odds & Analysis
With tensions over the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan Strait transits, and rare earth export controls, prediction markets assign a 7.5% probability to a China-Japan military clash before the end of 2026.
GeopoliticsUS x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 Odds & Analysis
The prediction market currently prices a direct US-Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 at just 3.2% YES, reflecting the reality that both nuclear powers maintain robust escalation-avoidance mechanisms despite elevated geopolitical tensions.
GeopoliticsZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Zelenskyy leaving office before 2027 at 11.5%. We break down the peace deal dynamics, constitutional framework, and political factors driving these odds.
GeopoliticsIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by December 2026 at just 11.5%, reflecting deep skepticism that Netanyahu will pull forces from the security zone despite US pressure.
GeopoliticsWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by December 31, 2026 at 11%. Deep analysis of the isolation campaign, Russian defensive preparations, and what triggers resolution.
GeopoliticsMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price a 22.5% chance Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appears publicly by December 2026 - with just 1.75% for July 31.
GeopoliticsIsrael closes its airspace by... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Israel airspace closure at 22.5% by August 31 following the July 8 US-Iran ceasefire collapse. Analysis of the odds, catalysts, and resolution criteria.
GeopoliticsResolvedChina-Philippines Clash Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price a China-Philippines military clash before 2027 at 10.5%. Analysis of gray-zone tactics at Second Thomas Shoal, the US mutual defense treaty factor, and catalysts that could push the market toward resolution.
GeopoliticsCuban regime falls in 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Cuban regime collapse at 12.5% as the island faces unprecedented blackouts, record protests, and a severed Venezuelan oil lifeline - but the Communist Party's massive security apparatus has so far held.
GeopoliticsWho will sign U.S. x Iran deal Odds & Analysis
Four officials have already signed the June 17 Islamabad MOU - Trump, Vance, Pezeshkian, and Sharif. The remaining contracts track whether additional signatories emerge before July 31, with Mohammed bin Salman leading at 2.8%.
GeopoliticsBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by... Odds & Analysis
The market prices Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure at 31.5% by December 2026 as Houthi attacks resume and US-Iran ceasefire collapses. Deep analysis of catalysts, resolution criteria, and trading considerations.
GeopoliticsUkraine joins NATO before 2027 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Ukraine's NATO membership before 2027 at just 4.75%. With Trump opposed, unanimous consent required, and active conflict ongoing, traders see near-zero chance of accession by year-end.
GeopoliticsWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Reza Pahlavi's chances of leading Iran by year-end at just 4.15%. Explore the Crown Prince's transition plan, diaspora backing, and the catalysts that could shift his odds.
GeopoliticsChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price a China-Taiwan military clash at 6.55% - capturing ADIZ incursions, coast guard standoffs, and accidental engagement risks distinct from full invasion scenarios.
GeopoliticsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026 at 41%, reflecting deep uncertainty as Geneva talks stall over territorial demands and peacekeeping disputes.
GeopoliticsWill Alberta join the US Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Alberta joining the US at just 2.25% despite Trump administration meetings with separatists and a successful 300,000-signature petition. Constitutional barriers and low public support for US annexation explain the long odds.
GeopoliticsWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027 Odds & Analysis
Trump's Greenland acquisition sits at 4.4% odds despite renewed pressure at the July 2026 NATO summit. Analyzing the odds, obstacles, and what could move this market before the December 2026 deadline.
GeopoliticsXi Jinping out before 2027 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Xi Jinping's removal before 2027 at just 5.75%. Deep analysis of CCP power dynamics, military purges, and succession uncertainty explains why traders see stability despite internal turmoil.
GeopoliticsUS strike on Cuba by December 31 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets currently price a US strike on Cuba by December 31 at 37%, with aerial strike odds reaching 49%. Here is what is driving the odds and how traders are positioning.
GeopoliticsIran leader end of 2026 Odds & Analysis
With Mojtaba Khamenei installed as Supreme Leader but questions swirling about his health and authority, prediction markets price him at 83% to remain Iran's head of state through December 2026.
GeopoliticsRussia Capture Kupiansk Odds & Analysis
Prediction market traders price Russian capture of Kupiansk at just 19% by year-end 2026, reflecting Ukrainian counteroffensive gains and failed Oskil River crossings.
PoliticsIran Leadership Change 2026 Odds & Analysis
The assassination of Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026 triggered Iran's first supreme leader succession since 1989. With Mojtaba Khamenei now installed but rarely seen in public, prediction market traders are pricing what comes next for the fractured Islamic Republic.
UkraineWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by... Odds & Analysis
prediction market traders price a 68% probability Russia captures Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026, with the December bracket at 86% - but the railway station remains in Ukrainian hands as of early July.
GuideHow to Trade Ceasefire Markets on Polymarket With Leverage
Ceasefire prediction markets let traders bet on whether warring parties will reach an official halt to military engagement. Learn how these high-volume geopolitical contracts resolve, what qualifies as a ceasefire, and strategies for trading resolution outcomes.
PoliticsNext Prime Minister of Ethiopia Odds & Analysis
prediction market prices Abiy Ahmed at 98% to remain Prime Minister of Ethiopia following his Prosperity Party's landslide June 2026 election victory, with all challengers trading below 2%.
PoliticsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by… Odds & Analysis
prediction market traders give a final US-Iran nuclear deal by August 31 just a 25% chance, with the 60-day negotiation window and recent ceasefire tensions shaping the timeline.
GeopoliticsRussia nuclear test by... Odds & Analysis
The market prices a Russian nuclear test at just 4.9% by September and 10.9% by year-end 2026, despite Putin ordering test preparations and the Novaya Zemlya site being declared fully operational.
PoliticsNext Prime Minister of Sweden Odds & Analysis
With the Red-Green bloc holding a double-digit polling lead ahead of Sweden's September 2026 election, prediction market prices Magdalena Andersson at 74% to return as Prime Minister while incumbent Ulf Kristersson trades at just 22%.
AnalysisWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 Odds & Analysis
The Burgenstock diplomatic breakthrough has crushed invasion odds from 60% to 13.5% - here is what leverage traders need to know about the remaining risk windows.
AnalysisUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by... Odds & Analysis
The Trump-Pezeshkian MoU has reshaped uranium transfer odds, creating distinct leverage opportunities across a catalyst-rich timeline stretching to year-end.
AnalysisWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Leverage up to 5x Odds & Analysis
After surviving supreme leader assassination and record inflation, Iran's regime trades at 90.5% survival odds - creating a binary leverage setup with asymmetric payoff potential on both sides.
AnalysisIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by... Odds & Analysis
The June 18 Versailles MOU has restructured the entire Iran uranium surrender market, creating a volatile setup where leveraged traders can position for either a diplomatic breakthrough or continued deadlock.
AnalysisWill the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026 Odds & Analysis
The Islamabad Memorandum crushed YES odds from 32% to 4.5% - here is how leverage traders can position around the remaining catalysts before December resolution.
AnalysisHow many different countries will Israel strike in 2026 Odds & Analysis
With four countries already struck and Yemen on the brink, the Israel strikes 2026 market offers leverage traders asymmetric setups on geopolitical escalation.
AnalysisBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Odds & Analysis
The Dark Horse audio scandal has fractured the right-wing coalition and created asymmetric opportunities across the entire Brazil presidential second-place market.
AnalysisUS strike on Mexico by December 31 Odds & Analysis
With odds collapsing from 37% to 18% after diplomatic pivots and Congressional constraints, the US strike on Mexico market offers leverage traders a case study in how institutional friction reprices geopolitical risk.
AnalysisStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Leverage up to 5x Odds & Analysis
The June 17 US-Iran MoU triggered a 32-point spike in Strait of Hormuz reopening odds - here is how leverage traders can position for the December resolution.
AnalysisPutin out as President of Russia by... Odds & Analysis
EU intelligence leaks and Kremlin security escalations have doubled Putin exit odds since January - here is how leverage traders can position for the remaining six months.
AnalysisWill US withdraw from NATO by... Odds & Analysis
With NATO withdrawal odds at 5.25% after retreating from April's 15% spike, leverage traders face a classic volatility setup heading into the Ankara summit.
AnalysisBrazil Presidential Election Odds & Analysis
The Vorcaro scandal reshapes Brazil's 2026 race - here's how leverage traders can position for the volatility ahead.
AnalysisVenezuela leader end of 2026 Odds & Analysis
With Maduro detained in Brooklyn and a constitutional deadline approaching in early July, Venezuela's leadership market offers leverage traders a rare convergence of political uncertainty and binary resolution dates.
AnalysisWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Leverage up to 5x Odds & Analysis
With invasion odds collapsed to single digits, leverage traders face a market where the real opportunity lies in positioning around dated catalysts rather than directional conviction.
AnalysisWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election Odds & Analysis
United Russia holds firm at 57% while New People's meteoric rise to 33.4% sets up a two-sided leverage trade heading into Russia's September 2026 State Duma election.
AnalysisWho will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election Odds & Analysis
The US-Iran MOU has reshuffled Israeli politics overnight - here is how leverage traders can position for the October election.
AnalysisNetanyahu out by... Odds & Analysis
The Knesset's unanimous dissolution vote has transformed Netanyahu exit markets into one of the clearest directional setups for leverage traders heading into September elections.