Geopolitics Prediction Markets
Geopolitics on prediction markets — conflicts, ceasefires, sanctions, nuclear milestones, and world-leader transitions. Event-driven markets that reprice fast on the news; trade them with leverage up to 5x.
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Israel Leaves Lebanon Odds & Leverage Trading
Prediction markets price Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by December 2026 at just 11.5%, reflecting deep skepticism that Netanyahu will pull forces from the security zone despite US pressure.
GeopoliticsUkraine Retake Crimea Odds & Leverage Trading
Prediction markets price Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by December 31, 2026 at 11%. Deep analysis of the isolation campaign, Russian defensive preparations, and what triggers resolution.
GeopoliticsIsrael Closes Airspace Odds & Leverage Trading
Prediction markets price Israel airspace closure at 22.5% by August 31 following the July 8 US-Iran ceasefire collapse. Analysis of the odds, catalysts, and resolution criteria.
GeopoliticsUS-Iran Deal Signer Odds & Leverage Trading
Four officials have already signed the June 17 Islamabad MOU - Trump, Vance, Pezeshkian, and Sharif. The remaining contracts track whether additional signatories emerge before July 31, with Mohammed bin Salman leading at 2.8%.
GeopoliticsUkraine Joins NATO Odds & Leverage Trading
Prediction markets price Ukraine's NATO membership before 2027 at just 4.75%. With Trump opposed, unanimous consent required, and active conflict ongoing, traders see near-zero chance of accession by year-end.
GeopoliticsReza Pahlavi to Lead Iran Odds & Leverage Trading
Prediction markets price Reza Pahlavi's chances of leading Iran by year-end at just 4.15%. Explore the Crown Prince's transition plan, diaspora backing, and the catalysts that could shift his odds.
GeopoliticsChina-Taiwan Clash 2026 Odds & Leverage Trading
Prediction markets price a China-Taiwan military clash at 6.55% - capturing ADIZ incursions, coast guard standoffs, and accidental engagement risks distinct from full invasion scenarios.
GeopoliticsRussia-Ukraine Ceasefire Odds & Leverage Trading
Prediction markets price a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026 at 41%, reflecting deep uncertainty as Geneva talks stall over territorial demands and peacekeeping disputes.
GeopoliticsIran Leader 2026 Odds & Leverage Trading
With Mojtaba Khamenei installed as Supreme Leader but questions swirling about his health and authority, prediction markets price him at 83% to remain Iran's head of state through December 2026.
GeopoliticsRussia Capture Kupiansk Odds & Leverage Trading
Prediction market traders price Russian capture of Kupiansk at just 19% by year-end 2026, reflecting Ukrainian counteroffensive gains and failed Oskil River crossings.
PoliticsIran Leadership Change 2026 Odds & Leverage Trading
The assassination of Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026 triggered Iran's first supreme leader succession since 1989. With Mojtaba Khamenei now installed but rarely seen in public, prediction market traders are pricing what comes next for the fractured Islamic Republic.
UkraineRussia Captures Kostyantynivka Odds & Leverage Trading
prediction market traders price a 68% probability Russia captures Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026, with the December bracket at 86% - but the railway station remains in Ukrainian hands as of early July.
GuideHow to Trade Ceasefire Markets on Polymarket With Leverage
Ceasefire prediction markets let traders bet on whether warring parties will reach an official halt to military engagement. Learn how these high-volume geopolitical contracts resolve, what qualifies as a ceasefire, and strategies for trading resolution outcomes.
PoliticsNext Prime Minister of Ethiopia Odds & Leverage Trading
prediction market prices Abiy Ahmed at 98% to remain Prime Minister of Ethiopia following his Prosperity Party's landslide June 2026 election victory, with all challengers trading below 2%.
PoliticsUS-Iran Nuclear Deal 2026 Odds & Leverage Trading
prediction market traders give a final US-Iran nuclear deal by August 31 just a 25% chance, with the 60-day negotiation window and recent ceasefire tensions shaping the timeline.
GeopoliticsRussia Nuclear Test 2026 Odds & Leverage Trading
The market prices a Russian nuclear test at just 4.9% by September and 10.9% by year-end 2026, despite Putin ordering test preparations and the Novaya Zemlya site being declared fully operational.
PoliticsSweden Prime Minister Odds & Leverage Trading
With the Red-Green bloc holding a double-digit polling lead ahead of Sweden's September 2026 election, prediction market prices Magdalena Andersson at 74% to return as Prime Minister while incumbent Ulf Kristersson trades at just 22%.
AnalysisUS Invade Iran Odds & Leverage Trading
The Burgenstock diplomatic breakthrough has crushed invasion odds from 60% to 13.5% - here is what leverage traders need to know about the remaining risk windows.
AnalysisUS Iran Enriched Uranium Odds & Leverage Trading
The Trump-Pezeshkian MoU has reshaped uranium transfer odds, creating distinct leverage opportunities across a catalyst-rich timeline stretching to year-end.
AnalysisIran Regime Fall Odds & Leverage Trading
After surviving supreme leader assassination and record inflation, Iran's regime trades at 90.5% survival odds - creating a binary leverage setup with asymmetric payoff potential on both sides.
AnalysisIran Uranium Surrender Odds & Leverage Trading
The June 18 Versailles MOU has restructured the entire Iran uranium surrender market, creating a volatile setup where leveraged traders can position for either a diplomatic breakthrough or continued deadlock.
AnalysisUS Declare War on Iran Odds & Leverage Trading
The Islamabad Memorandum crushed YES odds from 32% to 4.5% - here is how leverage traders can position around the remaining catalysts before December resolution.
AnalysisIsrael Strikes 2026 Odds & Leverage Trading
With four countries already struck and Yemen on the brink, the Israel strikes 2026 market offers leverage traders asymmetric setups on geopolitical escalation.
AnalysisBrazil Election Second Place Odds & Leverage Trading
The Dark Horse audio scandal has fractured the right-wing coalition and created asymmetric opportunities across the entire Brazil presidential second-place market.
AnalysisUS Strike on Mexico Odds & Leverage Trading
With odds collapsing from 37% to 18% after diplomatic pivots and Congressional constraints, the US strike on Mexico market offers leverage traders a case study in how institutional friction reprices geopolitical risk.
AnalysisStrait of Hormuz Odds & Leverage Trading
The June 17 US-Iran MoU triggered a 32-point spike in Strait of Hormuz reopening odds - here is how leverage traders can position for the December resolution.
AnalysisPutin Exit 2026 Odds & Leverage Trading
EU intelligence leaks and Kremlin security escalations have doubled Putin exit odds since January - here is how leverage traders can position for the remaining six months.
AnalysisUS Leave NATO Odds & Leverage Trading
With NATO withdrawal odds at 5.25% after retreating from April's 15% spike, leverage traders face a classic volatility setup heading into the Ankara summit.
AnalysisBrazil Presidential Election Odds & Leverage Trading
The Vorcaro scandal reshapes Brazil's 2026 race - here's how leverage traders can position for the volatility ahead.
AnalysisVenezuela Leader 2026 Odds & Leverage Trading
With Maduro detained in Brooklyn and a constitutional deadline approaching in early July, Venezuela's leadership market offers leverage traders a rare convergence of political uncertainty and binary resolution dates.
AnalysisChina Taiwan Invasion Odds & Leverage Trading
With invasion odds collapsed to single digits, leverage traders face a market where the real opportunity lies in positioning around dated catalysts rather than directional conviction.
AnalysisRussia Parliamentary Election Odds & Leverage Trading
United Russia holds firm at 57% while New People's meteoric rise to 33.4% sets up a two-sided leverage trade heading into Russia's September 2026 State Duma election.
AnalysisNext Israeli Prime Minister Odds & Leverage Trading
The US-Iran MOU has reshuffled Israeli politics overnight - here is how leverage traders can position for the October election.
AnalysisNetanyahu Exit Odds & Leverage Trading
The Knesset's unanimous dissolution vote has transformed Netanyahu exit markets into one of the clearest directional setups for leverage traders heading into September elections.