Geopolitics · 2026-07-17 · 13 min read · By Vsevolod

US-Iran Deal Signer Odds & Leverage Trading

Current Picture: Who Signs the US-Iran Agreement

The prediction market for US-Iran deal signer odds presents a distinctive angle on the ongoing diplomatic saga between Washington and Tehran. Rather than asking whether a deal happens, this market asks who will physically sign a bilateral or multilateral agreement to which both nations are parties - and the answer has already partially resolved. As of July 2026, four signatories have been confirmed: Donald Trump at 100%, JD Vance at 100%, Masoud Pezeshkian at 100%, and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif at 100%. These four officials signed the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which has already resolved their respective contracts. For traders seeking leveraged exposure to the remaining signatory outcomes on PredMart - with up to 5x leverage available - the question now centers on whether additional officials sign a follow-on agreement before the July 31, 2026 deadline.

The remaining open contracts tell a story of diplomatic uncertainty. Mohammed bin Salman leads the active field at 2.8%, followed by Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at 2.2%, Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa at 1.75%, and Qatar's Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani at 1.25%. The cluster of sub-2% outcomes includes US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and several other regional leaders. These prices reflect the market's assessment that while the MOU has been signed, a comprehensive final agreement requiring additional signatories remains unlikely within the two-week window before expiration.

What the Market Is Actually Asking

Understanding the resolution criteria is essential before positioning. This market resolves Yes for any listed individual who signs "a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties" by July 31, 2026. The qualifying agreement must be signed by the individual in an official capacity. Critically, the individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.

This expansive language explains why regional leaders appear on the board alongside the obvious US and Iranian officials. If a multilateral deal emerges with Saudi Arabia or Qatar as formal parties, their leaders' contracts would resolve Yes. If the UN Security Council passes a binding resolution that certain officials sign as witnesses or endorsers, those signatures could qualify. The resolution source will be official government information or credible consensus reporting.

The June 17 Islamabad Memorandum already resolved four contracts because Trump signed at Versailles, Pezeshkian signed remotely from Tehran, Vance signed digitally alongside Ghalibaf (though Ghalibaf's contract remains open since he was not a formal party), and Pakistan's Sharif signed as the mediating state's representative. Any follow-on agreement through July 31 could resolve additional contracts.

The Already-Resolved Signatories: What June 17 Delivered

The four confirmed signatories illustrate how this market tracks diplomatic process rather than deal substance. Trump signed the MOU during dinner with French President Macron at the Palace of Versailles on June 17 - a venue choice that signaled the administration's view of the agreement as a major diplomatic achievement. According to NPR's reporting on the full MOU text, the document established a 60-day negotiation window for resolving nuclear issues, sanctions relief, frozen Iranian assets, and Strait of Hormuz administration.

President Pezeshkian signed remotely from Tehran in a coordinated ceremony. His signature committed Iran to the 14-point framework despite internal political tensions with hardliners who viewed the terms as insufficiently favorable. Vice President Vance signed digitally alongside Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf in a separate formalization, though notably Ghalibaf signed in a witnessing capacity rather than as a formal party - leaving his contract technically open.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed as the mediating state that hosted the preliminary negotiations in Islamabad. His signature acknowledged Pakistan's role in bringing the parties together and its ongoing commitment to the implementation process. Qatar also mediated but Sheikh Tamim did not sign the MOU itself, explaining why his contract remains open at 1.25%.

Mohammed bin Salman: The 2.8% Front-Runner

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman leads the active field at 2.8% - still a long shot but meaningfully elevated above the cluster of sub-2% outcomes. The pricing reflects Saudi Arabia's strategic positioning as a potential guarantor or co-signer of any comprehensive regional security arrangement.

According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's analysis, Riyadh has sought to mediate between Washington and Tehran as part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's broader effort to position Saudi Arabia as a regional peacemaker. The kingdom's 2023 China-brokered detente with Iran established diplomatic relations after years of proxy conflicts, creating a foundation for Riyadh's involvement in any formal security architecture.

However, the Saudi Cabinet's June 16 statement - while welcoming the US-Iran agreement - explicitly credited Pakistan and Qatar as the primary mediators. This suggests Saudi Arabia is supporting the process without seeking a formal signatory role. The 2.8% probability embeds a small chance that a final deal before July 31 includes Saudi Arabia as a formal party, perhaps as part of a Gulf Cooperation Council-wide endorsement or a reconstruction fund governance structure requiring MBS's signature.

For traders considering a leveraged position, MBS at 2.8% implies roughly 35x return on a Yes outcome. At 5x leverage through PredMart, that translates to 175x return on margin - but the structural barriers to Saudi signature within two weeks make this highly speculative.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: Iran's Negotiator at 2.2%

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf trades at 2.2% despite having already signed the MOU alongside Vice President Vance in a digital ceremony. The contract remains open because Ghalibaf signed in a witnessing or facilitating capacity rather than as a formal party to the agreement itself.

Ghalibaf's role in the negotiations has been central. According to Axios reporting from March 2026, the 64-year-old hardliner emerged as the key Iranian figure in President Trump's push for peace talks. His background as an IRGC commander, police chief, and Tehran mayor positions him as acceptable to Iran's security establishment while his parliamentary role provides constitutional authority for diplomatic engagement.

The Washington Times reported in early July that Ghalibaf warned Chinese and Belarusian officials that Iran would restart hostilities if Washington failed to honor its commitments under the MOU. This hawkish posture suggests he is positioning himself as a guardian of Iranian interests rather than an eager deal-maker - potentially complicating any final agreement that would require his formal signature.

For Ghalibaf's contract to resolve Yes, a follow-on agreement would need to designate him as a formal signatory rather than a facilitator. This could occur if the final nuclear deal requires parliamentary ratification with Ghalibaf signing as Speaker, or if a trilateral arrangement positions Iran's legislature as a guarantor. At 2.2%, the market sees this as unlikely within the two-week window.

The Gulf Royals: Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, and Kuwait

The Gulf monarchies cluster between 0.95% and 1.75%, reflecting their roles as potential parties to any regional security framework.

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar trades at 1.25% - elevated by Qatar's central role as mediator. According to Al Jazeera's July 2026 reporting, Qatari officials hosted extended US-Iran talks in Doha with both Witkoff and Kushner meeting Sheikh Tamim directly. Bloomberg credited Qatar with leading the US and Iran toward the initial deal. The 1.25% probability reflects both Qatar's active involvement and the structural reality that mediators often facilitate without formally signing.

King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain trades at 1.75% - the highest of the Gulf royals despite Bahrain's smaller role in mediation. This may reflect Bahrain's position as home to the US Fifth Fleet and a potential signing ceremony venue. UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Kuwait's Emir Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah both trade at approximately 1% - baseline probabilities for any Gulf leader becoming party to a comprehensive regional arrangement.

The American Officials: Rubio, Hegseth, and Witkoff

The US side features three officials beyond Trump and Vance whose contracts remain open.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio trades at 0.9% despite his seniority in the administration's foreign policy apparatus. According to CNN's analysis of the MOU rollout, Rubio remained "conspicuously quiet" about the agreement for over a week, leading to speculation about internal disagreements. His subsequent statements emphasized alignment with Gulf allies concerned about Iranian missiles - a harder line than Trump and Vance's diplomatic overtures.

Rubio's low probability reflects the administration's unusual structure where Vance and special envoys rather than the Secretary of State have led Iran engagement. For Rubio's contract to resolve Yes, a formal treaty requiring Senate confirmation - and thus State Department signature - would need to emerge by July 31. The 60-day MOU framework makes this structurally implausible.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trades at 1.05%, elevated slightly by his potential role in any security agreement requiring Defense Department commitment. According to The Hill's reporting, Hegseth has "gone quiet on Iran" as the administration pursues diplomacy, stepping back from his earlier hawkish posture. However, the July escalation - with new US strikes after Iran attacked a merchant ship - suggests military dimensions remain unresolved.

Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy for peace missions, trades at 1.0% despite his operational role leading negotiations. According to Scheerpost and Responsible Statecraft reporting, Iranian officials have accused Witkoff and Kushner of pursuing personal profits over peace - allegations that could complicate any formal signing role. Witkoff's contract could resolve Yes if a final deal designates special envoys as signatories, though his current positioning suggests he is negotiating rather than expected to sign.

The Wild Cards: Netanyahu, Erdogan, and Mojtaba Khamenei

Three politically volatile figures round out the active board with improbable but non-zero odds.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trades at 0.95% - reflecting the theoretical possibility that a comprehensive regional deal includes Israeli security guarantees. Given Israel's ongoing operations in Lebanon and opposition to any Iran deal preserving enrichment, formal Israeli participation seems remote.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan trades at 0.95% - embedding a small probability that Turkey becomes party to a multilateral security framework. Turkey has not featured prominently in the mediation track.

Mojtaba Khamenei - son of the late Supreme Leader - trades at 1.05%, a notable inclusion given his potential succession to Iran's supreme leadership. His contract could only resolve Yes if he assumes formal power and signs an agreement by July 31. With Iranian succession politics unresolved, this represents pure tail risk speculation.

The Unlikely Iranian Diplomat: Abbas Araghchi at 0.75%

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi trades at just 0.75% - surprisingly low given his ministerial authority over foreign agreements. According to Deccan Herald's July 2026 reporting, Araghchi has stated that final talks with the US will not begin if Trump continues making threats, invoking paragraph 13 of the MOU. His public stance emphasizes Iranian sovereignty and rejection of coercion.

The low probability reflects Araghchi's positioning as a voice of caution rather than a deal-closer. While foreign ministers typically sign bilateral agreements, the Iran-US diplomatic track has bypassed traditional foreign ministry channels in favor of parliamentary (Ghalibaf) and presidential (Pezeshkian) engagement. For Araghchi's contract to resolve Yes, either a traditional bilateral treaty would need to emerge - unlikely given the non-standard negotiation structure - or Araghchi would need to sign in an official capacity alongside other parties.

Catalysts to Watch

The two-week window until July 31 creates a compressed catalyst calendar. Any announcement of a final agreement signing ceremony would immediately reprice expected signatories' contracts - if Gulf monarchs formally endorse a deal, MBS, Sheikh Tamim, and other royals could spike toward double-digit probabilities.

The technical negotiations in Doha and Switzerland are producing daily headlines. Iran's internal politics remain unstable following the late Supreme Leader's death - any confirmation of Mojtaba Khamenei assuming leadership would reprice his contract dramatically.

Resolution Mechanics

The July 31, 2026 deadline at 11:59 PM ET creates hard boundaries. Contracts that do not see their listed individual sign a qualifying agreement will resolve No. The market has already demonstrated resolution efficiency: the four confirmed signatories resolved at 100% following the June 17 MOU. Traders should note that signature timing matters precisely - a deal announced on August 1 would not resolve any remaining contracts to Yes.

The remaining contracts present asymmetric risk-reward profiles heavily skewed toward No outcomes. With all active contracts trading below 3%, the structural expectation is that the June 17 MOU signatories represent the full roster. For traders who believe a comprehensive deal is imminent with Gulf state endorsements, the MBS and Sheikh Tamim contracts offer the highest-probability Yes paths.

FAQ

Who has already signed a US-Iran deal?

Four officials signed the June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding: President Donald Trump at the Palace of Versailles; Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian remotely from Tehran; Vice President JD Vance digitally alongside Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf; and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif as the mediating state's representative. These four contracts have resolved at 100%.

Why is Mohammed bin Salman the front-runner among remaining signatories?

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman leads the active field at 2.8% because Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as a potential guarantor of any comprehensive regional security arrangement. Under MBS's leadership, the kingdom pursued detente with Iran in 2023 and has sought to mediate the current conflict. However, the Saudi Cabinet's statement credited Pakistan and Qatar rather than Saudi Arabia as primary mediators, suggesting MBS may support the process without seeking a formal signatory role. The 2.8% probability embeds a small chance that a final deal requires GCC endorsement or reconstruction fund governance structure with Saudi participation.

What would cause additional signatories to emerge before July 31?

Additional signatories would emerge if the 60-day negotiation window produces a comprehensive final agreement requiring multilateral endorsement before July 31. This could include: a UN Security Council resolution with officials signing as endorsers; a Gulf Cooperation Council security guarantee with royal signatures; a nuclear monitoring arrangement requiring IAEA official participation; or a reconstruction fund governance structure requiring signatory commitment from contributing nations. Given the complex issues remaining in negotiations - enrichment, sanctions, frozen assets - a signing ceremony within two weeks appears structurally unlikely.

How does this market differ from other US-Iran prediction markets?

This market asks specifically who signs, not whether a deal happens. Other prediction markets track deal substance: whether enrichment continues, whether uranium is surrendered, whether sanctions lift by certain dates. This market instead tracks diplomatic process - which officials affix their signatures to binding agreements. The distinction matters because the June 17 MOU has already resolved signatory questions for the primary parties while substantive deal terms remain contested. Traders can have high conviction that no additional signatories emerge (this market) while remaining uncertain whether nuclear terms get finalized (other markets).

What happens to unresolved contracts after July 31?

Any contract for an individual who has not signed a qualifying US-Iran agreement by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET will resolve to No. This creates a hard deadline that differs from ongoing deal markets. The resolution is binary and time-bounded: either the individual signs by the deadline or the contract resolves No regardless of subsequent developments. Traders holding Yes positions on any unresolved contracts will receive zero payout if the deadline passes without that individual's signature on a qualifying agreement.

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Vsevolod is the founder of PredMart and writes about leverage trading on prediction markets.