Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Current odds

• Mohammed bin Salman — 4.6%
• Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa — 2.2%
• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — 2.1%
• Steve Witkoff — 1.5%
• Mojtaba Khamenei — 1.5%
• Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani — 1.4%
• Recep Tayyip Erdogan — 1.4%
• Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan — 1.2%
• Pete Hegseth — 1.1%
• Benjamin Netanyahu — 1.0%
• King Abdullah II — 1.0%
• Marco Rubio — 0.8%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: This market tracks which officials sign a US-Iran agreement, not whether a deal happens. Four signatories have already been confirmed from the June 17 Islamabad MOU: Trump, Vance, Pezeshkian, and Pakistan's Sharif. The remaining contracts ask whether additional officials - including Gulf monarchs, Iranian negotiators, and US diplomats - sign a follow-on agreement before July 31, 2026. read the full analysis