Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Current odds

• December 31, 2026 — 93.5%
• September 30, 2026 — 84.5%
• August 31, 2026 — 58.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.

About this market: This Polymarket prediction market tracks whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka, a key rail hub in Donetsk Oblast that forms part of Ukraine's fortress belt defensive line. The market resolves based on ISW map shading of the railway station, with bracketed deadlines for September and December 2026. Russian forces have achieved significant tactical gains in June 2026 but face determined Ukrainian resistance in block-by-block urban combat. For a detailed breakdown of the current odds, front-line situation, and upcoming catalysts, read the full analysis